Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with...

9th July 2024 · 1 min read

Event

UK Drop-In: Crunch time for the Bank of England?

18th July 2024, 9:30AM BST

We’ve reassessed our expectations for the start of Bank of England rate cuts in light of the latest UK CPI and employment data.

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a...

9th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

La Niña poses downside risks to inflation in SE Asia

A La Niña could bring with it favourable growing conditions for crops in South East Asia, and help to put downward pressure on food prices across the region. It adds to the reasons to think the...

8th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

The hawks come out in their droves

Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Employment Report (Jun.)

Although the 206,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June beat the consensus at 190,000, this was more broadly a disappointing report when we factor in the 111,000 downward revision to past months and...

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause

The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking

With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with...

4th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (June)

Switzerland’s inflation rate fell to 1.3% in June from 1.4% in May, but concerningly for policymakers, private services inflation rose for the fourth time in five months. We think the increasing...

4th July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The larger-than-expected decline in Turkish inflation in June marks the start of a new phase of the disinflation process, and we are likely to see much steeper falls in the y/y inflation rate in July...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs

We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However...

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read