Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will deliver final rate hike later this year The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls... 5th September 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to further weakness in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that the outlook for global industry remains bleak, particularly in advanced economies. And although price pressures seem to have increased, we doubt that this marks the... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lessons from history point to April rate cut Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in April, which is a little... 3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 2024) August’s batch of PMIs showed a slightly more positive outturn for the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors, but there was better news from Egypt where its PMI rose back above the 50-mark for the first time... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Turkish inflation, to 52.0% y/y, in August is likely to be followed by continued disinflation over the coming months. But there are signs in the breakdown that underlying inflation... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: fall in inflation opens the door to October cut Inflation in Korea fell back sharply last month, supporting our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in October. 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Higher fuel duty wouldn’t reignite inflation In a week when the Prime Minister said that the coming Budget will be “painful”, we think there’s a growing chance that fuel duty will rise from next year for the first time since 2011. That will... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 24) Falling house prices and a soft labour market will continue to hold back consumer spending over the coming months. And with the PBOC concerned about a bond bubble, large-scale monetary easing appears... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Jul.) The July income and spending report shows price pressures remaining muted despite the strength of real consumption. The latter suggests that third-quarter consumption growth will be 3.7%. Even... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August 2024) We doubt that August’s unexpected increase in services inflation will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September. 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly MPC shake-up suggests no October rate cut Confirmation that the two most dovish members of the MPC will be stepping down before the RBI's next policy meeting in October strengthens our view that the panel won't vote to cut rates in that... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will press ahead with another rate hike The jump in the unemployment rate in July is a lagged response to the weakness in economic activity around the turn of the year. Given that the July industrial production and retail sales data are... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Jul. 24) & Tokyo CPI (Aug. 24) The jump in the unemployment rate in July should reverse before long as economic activity rebounds. Meanwhile, the renewed pick-up in underlying inflation in Tokyo in August is consistent with our... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
