Asia Economics Update

Inflation in Asia to stay low, easing cycle to continue

Headline inflation in Asia has continued to ease over the past year and is now back to (or below) target everywhere. We expect inflation to remain subdued over the coming year as improved growing...

22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec' 24)

The smaller-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.0% y/y, in November, combined with the recent recovery in the rand, supports our view that the SARB can continue with its...

22nd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2024)

21st January 2025 · 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025)

The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will...

21st January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Focus

​​French public debt: trouble brewing​

Developments over the past year have put France’s public debt on a steeper upward path, with the debt ratio now likely to rise from 113% of GDP last year to around 126% by 2030. We see little chance...

21st January 2025 (Updated 15th July 2025) · 14 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024)

The small fall in headline inflation to 1.8% in December is not as encouraging as it looks, with the details suggesting that a higher proportion of the GST holiday was captured by the price surveys...

21st January 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet

We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate...

21st January 2025 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys show steady improvement

The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of...

20th January 2025 · 4 mins read

Crunch time in Washington

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Weak rand and the SARB, Ghana and Nigeria inflation

The rand’s recent weakness has raised worries in the market that the SARB’s easing cycle will slow. There are upside risks to our rates forecast, but we still believe tight fiscal policy and spare...

17th January 2025 · 6 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Near-term inflation outlook improves

The December PPI, CPI and import price data were together consistent with a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. After a brief resurgence in inflationary...

17th January 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: The surprising coming shift in UK/US yields

A more favourable outlook for inflation in the UK than in the US suggests to us that the bigger falls in UK gilt yields than US yields this week will continue throughout 2025. If we’re right, that...

17th January 2025 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Higher energy prices; good news on EZ consumption?

Recent moves in oil and natural gas markets mean that inflation might be a bit higher this year than we previously assumed, but we still expect it to be around 2%. There have also been some tentative...

17th January 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2025)

The latest data suggest that resilient consumer spending supported GDP growth in the US towards the end of last year, while activity in other advanced economies remained weak. Industry continues to...

17th January 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone services disinflation will resume in 2025

Services inflation in the euro-zone was stuck around 4% last year but we remain convinced that it will decline significantly in 2025.

17th January 2025 · 2 mins read