Global Markets Update Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened... 16th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update “Malbec dollar” won’t save Argentina from devaluation A preferential rate to facilitate wine exports is the latest addition to Argentina’s myriad exchange rates, but it doesn’t address the fundamental problem that the peso is overvalued. We estimate that... 15th March 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell, bank runs & payrolls add to crosswinds in currencies The dollar’s sharp rally after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish testimony to Congress on Tuesday sent US interest rate expectations soaring now looks like ancient history. Instead, after unexpected turmoil... 10th March 2023 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Egypt policymaking, Tunisia-World Bank Tensions within OPEC+ over oil policy appear to be escalating amid rumours that the UAE is, once again, thinking about leaving the group. Ultimately, we think the Gulf states will ramp up oil output... 9th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update What Powell’s bombshell means for our markets forecasts Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress has prompted a material revision to our forecast for the path of the fed funds rate and suggests the near-term risks to that forecast are skewed to the upside... 8th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks have eased but not evaporated Financial risks across the emerging world have eased since the start of the year but, with the Fed’s Jerome Powell all but confirming a higher peak for US rates, there is still scope for EMs with weak... 8th March 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency phoney war continues ahead of US payrolls & BoJ Currency markets have mostly gone sideways this week, with the US dollar set to end it a touch weaker against most other major currencies. With both activity and price data continuing to surprise to... 3rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update The Colombian peso looks poised for a rebound As political risks appear to be largely discounted by investors, we expect the Colombian peso to outperform other major EM currencies over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest we... 2nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think China’s “reopening trade” has further to go We think the reopening rally in China’s equity market and currency has further to run this year. 1st March 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We doubt the shekel will continue to underperform The Israeli shekel has been amongst the worst performing currencies over the past month amid a rise in risk premia in Israel. We think it may remain under pressure against the US dollar over the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Cash is king as “higher-for-longer” worries take hold While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31st January and 24th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data... 28th February 2023 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar continues its slow and steady rise The US dollar looks set to end a third week higher against most major currencies amid mounting evidence that the US economy started the year on strong footing. In particular, hawkish FOMC minutes and... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue to edge higher Stronger-than-expected data out of the US have pushed up US yields more than elsewhere and drove the greenback higher against most currencies for the first time since its cyclical peak in October of... 23rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
