Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rebound still a headwind to US assets The latest US CPI report showed limited sign of any tariff impact but we continue to think that a rebound in inflation remains a headwind to US stock and bond markets this year – though it would... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update EM FX rally has run its course as tariffs add to downside risk Despite some weakness on the back of the latest tariff threats, emerging market currencies have broadly appreciated against the US dollar this year, mostly due to greenback-specific headwinds. We... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump tariffs and the dollar revisited (again) The Trump administration’s continued re-escalation of tariffs threats have so far made limited impact on financial markets, but one key difference in the way market participants have digested the... 14th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound has further to run despite Tariff Man The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9th July... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities Growth and trade risks to weigh on Mexican markets We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets are (probably) right to ignore Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop Market participants have largely shrugged off President Trump’s latest set of threats to raise tariffs on a range of countries, focusing on the fact that today’s “deadline” for re-imposing the... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: How far will the Bank of Canada go to support growth? 30th July 2025, 5:00PM BST With the economy facing an elevated risk of recession, we expect the Bank of Canada to do its part and cut rates further.
US Economics Update Weaker dollar not a significant inflationary threat A weaker dollar should not compound the upward pressure on goods prices from tariffs too greatly given that the greenback remains strong by historical standards and, in any case, the pass-through of... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Lack of tariff clarity may not hold back US markets Despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets – especially equities and the dollar – to rally over the rest of the year. 7th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Solid payrolls provides only limited relief for the dollar The US dollar has stabilised to a degree this week after another solid non-farm payrolls report generated a bit of a rebound in US interest rate expectations. The bigger picture remains that the... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB lower target and nationalisation, Ghana inflation Data released this week showing a further decline in inflation expectations in South Africa provide further ammunition for those arguing that the time is right for the SARB’s inflation target to be... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Solid US payrolls point to rebound in UST yields & USD Another robust US payrolls report supports our view that the FOMC will remain on hold this year and, in turn, our forecast for Treasury yields and the dollar to rebound over the coming months. 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
