Equities Update Tariffs and our downgraded forecast for the S&P 500 We are significantly downgrading our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 for two key reasons. The first is yesterday’s announcement of greater tariffs on US imports than we had assumed. In such... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Two surprises in the market reaction to “Liberation Day” Markets were roiled after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs that were clearly bigger than many (including us) had expected. We think there are a couple of interesting facts in the market... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: keep an eye on FX reserves Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have... 2nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs. 1st April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will EZ equities continue to outperform US ones? While the recent outperformance of euro-zone stocks relative to US ones may have a bit further to run, we doubt European equities would hold up in absolute terms if US stocks fell much further. 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 31st March 2025 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Taking stock ahead of “Liberation Day” Despite President Trump’s decision to jump the gun with tariffs on the auto sector this week (ahead of next week’s widely trailed announcement on 2nd April), the dollar is ending the week broadly flat... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market. 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Bonds Update Revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads Given our view that the rise in yields outside Germany will not match the recent increase in Bund yields anytime soon, we are revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads. That said, we still... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs hit stock markets, US relatively spared – for now Equity investors have stopped ignoring US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcements. We think they are right to do so. 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Response: Unfinished fiscal business Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Has China’s tech rally run out of steam? We think China’s tech stocks could rally a bit further yet, and perhaps outperform those globally for a while. 26th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of US equity market exceptionalism While the drop and partial rebound in the US stock market over recent weeks has in many ways followed a familiar pattern, it has also seen some relatively unusual characteristics that point to the... 25th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 25) We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level... 25th March 2025 · 1 min read
