Chief Economist's Note Key risks for 2026: What could go wrong (and right) next year? Last week I outlined the key macro themes that are likely to shape the global economy in 2026. This week I tackle a question that has come up frequently in subsequent client meetings: What are the key... 8th December 2025
Capital Daily FOMC on deck; JGBs under siege As the final round of G10 central bank policy meetings for the year kicks off, the emerging theme is divergence. That applies to both the immediate policy decisions and, more importantly, to the... 8th December 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee at 90/$; what next? The Indian rupee breached 90/$ for the first time ever this week and we think further, albeit gradual, depreciation lies in store over the coming quarters. We now expect the rupee to end next year at... 5th December 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI resumes easing cycle; one more rate cut to come The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today resumed its easing cycle and struck a fairly dovish tone. With inflation set to stay well-below target and growth set to ease over the coming quarters, we remain... 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year JGB yield set to reach 30-year high In the wake of the BoJ signaling a rate hike at its December meeting, the 10-year JGB yield has approached 2% and we think it will climb to a 30-year high of 2.5% over the next couple of years. We... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Australia & NZ: canaries in the markets coalmine? The market reaction to the apparent ends of the Australian and New Zealand easing cycles could provide a blueprint for how Treasuries and the US dollar will behave as the Fed winds up its own. 5th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US equities still struggling to be exceptional The US stock market has rebounded close to its all-time high but is struggling to regain the ground it lost to equities elsewhere over the past year. While that was arguably a bad sign in the dotcom... 4th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three reasons to be positive on Japan’s markets Although they’ve struggled lately, we think the yen and Japanese equities will fare well next year, and that JGBs will outperform many other developed-market bonds in common-currency terms too. 4th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may continue despite Hassett Even if the FOMC cuts the fed funds rate again next week and Kevin Hassett does indeed become the next Fed Chair, we think the dollar rebound over recent months has further to run. 3rd December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ hikes not a threat to global markets The prospect of the Bank of Japan resuming its hiking cycle a bit sooner than previously thought has sent tremors through global bond and equity markets this week, but we suspect they could... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will bring rates close to neutral by 2027 The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market remains very tight. While energy subsidies and falling crude oil prices will weigh on headline inflation... 2nd December 2025 · 17 mins read
Equities Focus EM equities rally to lose some steam outside of Asia We forecast emerging market equities to post solid returns in 2026, although not on the same scale as the exceptional gains seen this year. We expect the biggest returns in EM Asia as the AI boom... 1st December 2025 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Mega-cap divergence & FOMC disagreements Equity markets have finally got into the festive spirit, with a fairly broad-based rebound underway. In part, that appears to reflect renewed hopes for more Fed easing, which we think will ultimately... 1st December 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Growth prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa look bright, with inflation low or falling for most and a monetary easing cycle well under way, with many central banks likely to cut rates deeper than most... 28th November 2025 · 0 mins read
