UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 23) The further small increase in the Nationwide house price index in November was unexpected and came on the heels of an even larger rise in October. It means house prices are on track to fall by just 2%... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has succeeded in stamping out housing rebound House price growth has been slowing in recent months and CoreLogic's daily data suggest that prices are now falling again in Melbourne and Sydney. A renewed downturn in the housing market suggests... 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Data centres to remain non-core, despite AI boost Our AI work has identified data centres as a clear winner from these innovations. That the sector is already in rude health is borne out by the latest real estate data. But it remains to be seen if it... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have downwardly revised their expectations for 2024, as a downgrade in capital value growth outweighed some improvement in rents. That leaves us... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Deep divide among homebuilders The usually strong relationship between NAHB homebuilder confidence and housing starts has broken down recently. That can be explained by the composition of the NAHB’s builder members, which are... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024 rate cuts will provide no respite to price corrections Even though we expect the Fed to go into cutting mode within the next six months and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% in 2024, we don’t expect this to provide any respite for real estate... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Oct. 23) While net lending to commercial property increased for the eighth consecutive month in October, this hasn’t translated into higher investment volumes – which fell back again in October. But further... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2023) Another large monthly gain in house prices in September suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outstrip the drag on demand from high mortgage rates. This... 28th November 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) China’s economy is making headway again after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 28th November 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher r* means more pain for property Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Oct. 2023) New home sales reversed most of their rise in the previous month as mortgage rates spiked to 8%. However, we don’t think this marks an end to the strength in new homes sales. That’s because the supply... 27th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property rescue efforts intensify Policymakers want banks to lend more to developers, especially private ones. They will be reluctant to do so but are likely to comply to some degree – previous rounds of credit support for developers... 24th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2023) Property yields rose across all sectors in Q3 and a surge in office yields drove the sharpest rise in all-property yields so far this year. However, this was matched by the spike in bond yields in... 23rd November 2023 · 0 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop... 21st November 2023 · 15 mins read
