US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) With Treasury yields rising in Q4 and property cap rates falling for the first time since mid-2022, our property valuation scores declined across the board. This supports our view that the recovery in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Update The S&P 500 in 2025: a five-figure fantasy? While our bullish year-end forecast of 7,000 for the S&P 500 assumes the index’s absolute valuation will approach its dotcom-era peak, that forecast is comparatively conservative based on relative... 20th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2025) 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed FOMC Minutes (Jan 28th-29th) The minutes of the Fed’s late-January policy meeting underline that, having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp, officials are in no hurry to resume loosening monetary policy, even though most still... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the BoC right to ignore CPI-trim and CPI-median? The Bank of Canada has downplayed the recent stronger monthly increases in its preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures, but we are not convinced by the Bank’s claim that these measures are... 19th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think moves in DM yields may diverge before long Although long-term government bond yields in developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem with those of US Treasuries in recent months, we think they will diverge in the coming months. 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Jan. 2025) The decline in housing starts in January is not a major concern, as it comes after a surge in starts in December and appears partly driven by the unseasonably harsh weather. Encouragingly, permit... 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably rise to around 3.5% in the second half of this year. We doubt this will prevent... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further than most expect Having handed down a third consecutive 50bp rate cut at its meeting today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to slow the pace of easing going forward. That said, we still think there’s a... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2024) 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2025) The plunge in the sales-to-new listings ratio in January is a downside risk to our view that house prices will recover this year, particularly amid anecdotal evidence that US tariff threats are... 18th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Outlook – The global economic order post-Trump 11th March 2025, 3:00PM GMT Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term.
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly and employment growth solid. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of... 18th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We think the window for further Fed interest rate cuts has closed, so mortgage rates should remain near their current 7% level this year, before a little more relief arrives in 2026. There will still... 18th February 2025 · 1 min read
