The 0.1% m/m fall in real GDP in May as bad as it looked as some of it was due to the extra bank holiday for the King’s Coronation. Indeed, real GDP is on track to rise by around 0.1% q/q in Q2 as a whole, which would beat the Bank of England’s 0.0% q/q forecast for the second quarter in a row. Next Wednesday’s June CPI release will probably determine whether the Bank raises interest rates by 25bps or 50bps at the next policy meeting in early August.
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