Pace of tightening likely to slow

With inflation having passed the peak and domestic demand showing signs of softening, we expect the MPC to slow the pace of monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Wednesday 7th December. Further ahead, the tightening cycle is likely to draw to a close by early 2023 and rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year, much sooner than the consensus expects.