Two key uncertainties for India from Trump's second term - the size and scope of tariffs and the future of the H-1B visa scheme - are no closer to being cleared up. We continue to assume a 10% universal tariff on US imports, which would have only a small direct impact on Indian exports. Meanwhile, Trump appears to have softened his previous hostile stance towards the H-1B visa scheme, but if restrictions were tightened it would weaken remittance flows and put the rupee under more pressure.
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