The World in 2023: The outlook for commodity prices

We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in many major economies. That said, we expect a relatively shallow recession and the US Federal Reserve to be in easing mode by Q4, which should give a renewed lift to commodity demand later in the year. This will expose the highly constrained supply of many commodities and should translate into rising prices in the second half of 2023.