There is no prospect of China lifting its zero-COVID policy in the near future and it probably won’t happen before the end of 2023. If the leadership did want to transition to living with the virus, it would first have to raise the vaccination rate of China’s elderly which would take several months. There is no sign that a determined push to do so is even beginning. Another year of zero-COVID equals another year of depressed consumer activity and a high risk of recurrent large-scale lockdowns.
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