China Trade (Aug.)

China’s export volumes fell last month by the most since March. Partly, this was due to the backlog of orders that built up during Shanghai’s lockdown having been cleared and ports returning to normal operations. But there was a particularly sharp drop in exports to the US and in shipments of the consumer durables that surged most during the pandemic. We expect exports to soften further and for imports, which have dropped back considerably in real terms over the past 18 months, to remain subdued.