Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q3 2025)

The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 reflects continued strength in domestic demand and adds to reasons to expect the central bank to hold off resuming its easing...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q3 2025)

The surprise 0.1% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy was mainly due to weaker private consumption and exports and supports our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp in December...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2025)

The slightly larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.7% y/y in October won’t prompt Copom to kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting in December. But with the economy weakening...

11th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) cut interest rates by another 25bp, to 7.25%, today but the shift in its forward guidance suggests policymakers are now more cautious about committing to further rate...

6th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025)

The Brazilian central bank’s hawkish statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate at 15.00% all but ends any hope of an interest rate cut before year-end. Our new base case is that the...

5th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional)

The 0.3% q/q contraction in Mexico’s GDP was driven by weakness in the services and in particular the manufacturing sector and should make Banxico consider another 25bp cut in the policy rate, to 7.25...

30th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Argentina Mid-Term Elections (October 2025)

The strong showing for President Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party is not only an endorsement of his reform agenda but will also substantially increase the LLA’s representation in congress, which...

27th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 25)

The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.9% y/y in mid-October, is unlikely to materially change the central bank’s hawkish tone. The start of an easing cycle is approaching, but it’s likely to be...

24th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2025)

The dip in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of October, combined with the weakness in the economy, means that Banxico is likely to follow through on its forward guidance and deliver...

23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil & Mexico CPI (Sep. 2025)

The small increases in inflation in Brazil and Mexico in September are unlikely to have a material impact on the next interest rate meetings in both countries. In Brazil, while an easing cycle is...

9th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp interest rate cut, to 7.50%, at its meeting today and the communications were broadly unchanged, suggesting that easing will continue at the...

25th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep. 2025)

The small rise in Mexican inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of September won’t stop Banxico from delivering a clearly-signalled 25bp cut, to 7.50%, at tomorrow’s Board meeting.

24th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2025)

The Brazilian central bank’s statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% remained hawkish – but a little less so than at the last meeting in July. And with growth...

17th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2025)

The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 5.1% y/y in August, is unlikely to change the central bank’s tone at its meeting next week. Interest rates will remain on hold at 15.00%. But with inflation...

10th September 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025)

The small rise in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in August still leaves the headline rate within Banxico’s target range and means that policymakers are likely to deliver another 25bp cut, to 7.50%, at...

9th September 2025 · 2 mins read