Global Economics Update El Niño could compound effects of the Iran war shock An El Niño in the second half of the year – as seems increasingly likely – would add to the upside pressures on food and energy prices stemming from the Iran war. The macroeconomic effects would be... 6th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online... 28th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Iran war and EMs – your questions answered This Update answers the questions on the Iran war and the impact on emerging markets that we have received most frequently from clients in meetings, through our platform and in our online briefings... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update LatAm bonds to outperform if energy prices fall further If the Iran war eases and energy prices fall back further, we expect LatAm bonds to outperform, as monetary policy would be eased substantially in Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in Mexico. By... 21st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Reopening of Strait leaves us close to our baseline scenario The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened has extended this month's dual rally in stocks and bonds. We think both rallies have further to run if things progress broadly in line with... 17th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Gauging the early inflation impact of the energy shock The CPI figures for March show that, so far, the energy price shock has had a relatively limited impact on EM inflation. In part, that’s because of energy subsidies (particularly in Asia) and the... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the energy shock? The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How should central banks respond to oil shocks? Central banks face a classic policy dilemma when oil prices surge – inflation rises but growth might weaken. The right response depends crucially on why oil prices are rising, how persistent the shock... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where might energy subsidy bills worsen fiscal strains? The sharp rise in energy prices threatens to raise the cost of energy subsidies across many emerging markets. Those governments with the largest subsidy bills also tend to be energy producers that... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
