UK Economics Update Why QT may influence gilt yields for years to come A further slowdown of Quantitative Tightening (QT) may relieve some of the recent upward pressure on gilt yields, but only temporarily. And although QT is making the public finances less sensitive to... 8th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update Gilts are down but not out Higher energy prices alongside renewed fiscal concerns have pushed Gilt yields to multi-decade highs, but we continue to think they will fall back over the next year or so. We’ll be discussing the... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update How could Japan respond to soaring bond yields? The recent increase in JGB yields has been driven by global rather than domestic factors and there are no signs that it is creating financial stress. The BoJ will accelerate its tightening cycle to... 1st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update AI rally and oil prices to drive EM asset divergence While local-currency bonds in parts of LatAm and EM Europe may outperform those in Asia if oil prices fall, equities in those regions are likely to continue to lag their Asian peers as the AI rally... 26th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Bessent won’t keep the bond vigilantes at bay forever We suspect long-dated Treasury yields will stabilise over the next few weeks as some calm is restored following the recent bout of volatility in global sovereign bond markets. But we expect term... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of hyperscalers’ rising debt levels While most US hyperscalers have ample capacity to take on additional debt to fund their AI-related capex, financing constraints are slowly appearing for the less financially robust parts of the AI... 17th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update What the AI debt boom means for borrowing costs The boom in AI-related corporate bond issuance looks set to continue as firms ramp up their spending on the AI buildout. We think this deluge of supply will increasingly test investors’ capacity to... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Bonds Update Treasury curve inversion may be on the cards We expect the spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields to narrow further over the coming months, and we think that continued escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to the curve inverting... 20th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Gilt yields to fall despite political headwinds Despite incoming PM Burnham facing the tricky task of maintaining investor confidence against a fragile fiscal backdrop and the potential for a prolonged US-Iran conflict, we expect Gilt yields to... 14th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update 10-year JGB yield will climb to 3% before long The latest available data are consistent with our long-held view that Japan’s budget deficit has narrowed far more rapidly than many thought. Nonetheless, with the BoJ set to lift interest rates to 2%... 6th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Japanese capital repatriation still not a big threat In light of recent market developments, we are re-sending this Update on the implications of higher Japanese yields for global markets. Despite the continued rise in JGB yields, we don’t think global... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What lies in store for Colombia’s markets post-election? Colombian assets would rally in the event of a victory for a right-wing candidate in the presidential election. Local currency bond yields appear to have the greatest scope to stage a post-election... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update The JGB selloff is nearing a crucial point While FX intervention dominated the headlines a couple of weeks ago, Japan’s bond markets have come under increasing pressure. This Update argues that most of the past rise in yields has been benign... 21st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
