Uncertainty mounts over pick-up in GDP growth

There is now a marked gap opening up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which is not far above recessionary levels. On balance, we still anticipate a healthy 2.5% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP, although we previously thought it might be 3.0% or higher. Furthermore, the balance of risks to that forecast lies mainly on the downside.