Even after taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture, we still don’t believe that the fall in GDP in the fourth quarter is much of a concern. Contractions in government spending and negative contributions to growth from inventories and net trade rarely trigger recessions. Instead, recessions are usually a result of sharp and sudden capitulations in consumption and investment.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.