Another weak first quarter and ‘soft’ versus ‘hard’ data

The strength of most sentiment and activity surveys, despite the apparent weakness of first-quarter GDP growth, has led to a number of claims that we should put our trust in the so-called ‘hard’ data because the strengthening of the ‘soft’ survey data is based on unrealistic expectations of what the Trump presidency will deliver. There are a number of reasons why this way of thinking is naïve.

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