Virus disruption will only be partly reversed in H2

As a result of the coronavirus and the containment measures put in place to constrain its spread, we now anticipate an unprecedented 40% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, with the unemployment rate spiking to 12.5% within a few months. Even allowing for a recovery in the second half of the year, we estimate that GDP growth for this year as a whole will be -5.0%, with a 6.5% rebound in 2021.

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