Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth

A marked gap has opened up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which has weakened over the past few months. We still think there are good reasons to believe GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5% annualised in the third quarter. Net exports are on track to make a modest contribution to third-quarter growth and the recovery in drilling activity points to a 60% annualised gain in mining structures investment. Nonetheless, the uncertainty surrounding the extent of the pick-up in GDP growth won’t fully dissipate until later this fall.