Fitful data on UK recovery strains markets’ nerves (Jul 10)

Once again, recent market movements appear to have been partly shaped by events in the eurozone, where bouts of both optimism and nervousness surrounding the current stress tests on banks and the health of the euro-zone public finances have coincided with sharp movements in UK equities and sterling. However, mixed data on the strength of the UK’s recovery, including signs from the activity surveys in June that output growth may have begun to ease, also appear to explain recent market developments. We continue to expect growth to slow in the UK and abroad over the next year or so as fiscal squeezes bite and hence expect risk appetite to fade a little further later this year.