A weak end to the year

Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first quarter of 2019. Even if a Brexit deal is reached, we think high house prices and normalising interest rates will prevent a meaningful pick-up in transactions and house price growth. And if the UK were to leave the EU without a deal, we expect activity in the housing market to slow sharply, with transactions falling by perhaps 5% to 10%.