A string of weak economic data, as well as comments by Governor Carney, have all but ruled out another interest rate hike on 10th May. Indeed, the MPC is likely to err on the side of caution until it is confident that the recent softening in the data is temporary. Nonetheless, with wage growth accelerating, it won’t want to wait too long. Assuming the economy holds up, we think that the MPC will hike again in August.
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