Monetary policy decisions, served three ways

After months of anticipation, the Norges Bank will surely pull the trigger on its long-awaited tightening cycle next Thursday. We suspect that policymakers will portray the rate rise as a “dovish hike”, but we still forecast the Bank to raise rates by another 25bp in December, and by a bit more than investors expect next year. Elsewhere, both the Riksbank and SNB will leave their policy rates on hold next week, but we think there is a good chance that Swedish policymakers will open the door to shrinking the balance sheet next year.