On the face of it, the 5.1% y/y rise in Brazilian industrial production in November is good news. But the impressive annual growth rate masks a monthly drop of -0.2%. While we wouldn’t read too much into one number, at the very least it suggests that the smooth and rapid recovery expected by some is likely to be disappointed. We expect GDP growth to fade from 5.0% this year to 3.0% in 2011.
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