A sluggish end to another disappointing year for Brazil

The release of retail sales data for December allows us to have a first stab at estimating growth in Brazil the final quarter of last year. We reckon that the economy expanded at an annual rate of just under 2% in Q4, which would be consistent with quarter-on-quarter growth of about 0.5%. That would represent a welcome return to growth, following the q/q contraction in output in Q3, but it is hardly a cause for celebration. Over 2013 as a whole, we think the economy grew by just 2.2%.