Pulling down our currency forecasts

We expected 2018 to be a year of weakness for Latin American currencies, but the recent falls against the dollar have pushed a number of exchange rates through our year-end forecasts already. We’re wary of chasing the market but the balance of risks are tilted towards further weakness. Accordingly, we’ve nudged down our forecasts and expect most currencies to weaken further against the dollar by year-end. One exception is the Mexican peso which, assuming Nafta survives, could appreciate.