Mexico’s downturn, Peru & the IMF

The early data for March supported our view that Mexico’s economy is suffering a fall in output that is at least as bad as it was during the Global Financial Crisis. And the government’s reluctance to introduce a significant fiscal package could make the downturn much worse. Elsewhere, the decision by Peruvian policymakers to approach the IMF for a credit line shouldn't be viewed as a desperate measure, given the economy’s strong fundamentals. Instead, it's a prudent move designed to sustain credibility as the government launches one of the largest fiscal responses of any EM.