Brazil: pension reform progress, Copom shifting tone

Brazil’s much-vaunted pension reform passed an important legislative hurdle this week, although the bill is likely to come up against more substantial resistance in the coming weeks. In the meantime, the central bank seems to be backing away from the idea that interest rate cuts are contingent on the reform progressing. And with the incoming activity data continuing to disappoint, it’s looking increasingly likely that Copom will cut the Selic rate at the next meeting on 31^st July.