Turning the corner

The recent slowdown in Latin American growth appears to have passed its trough. Our regional GDP Tracker suggests that output rose by around 1.3-1.5% y/y at the start of Q4, up from a low point of about 0.8% y/y in July. Growth in the region as a whole is likely to strengthen further next year as Brazil’s recovery gathers steam and Mexico’s economy picks up. But the recovery will be gradual and our forecasts for much of the region next year are below consensus.