Southeast Asia shortages unlikely to derail recovery

The huge fall in car sales in September suggests that shortages of parts from Southeast Asia are starting to hamper goods consumption. And while factories in important suppliers such as Vietnam and Malaysia are now reopening, the large backlogs of orders suggest that the handbrake is likely to remain on the car industry for the time being. But given that retail spending on cars only makes up a tiny share of total consumption, we don’t expect this to derail the strong, services-driven rebound in consumer spending we’re expecting in Q4.