Q1 weakness a prelude to slower growth this year

We wouldn’t read too much into the contraction in GDP last quarter. After all, trend growth in Japan is low and the drop in output followed eight consecutive quarters of expansion, the longest stretch in three decades. The available data suggest that growth resumed this quarter. Still, the economy is running into capacity constraints which will put a lid on how fast output can expand. Firms are facing increasingly severe staff shortages and there isn’t much scope to expand working hours. We reiterate our forecast that GDP growth will slow from 1.7% in 2017 to 1.2% this year.