Transport services resume, Cyclone Amphan

The government’s decision to allow some travel services to resume will provide a small boost to economic activity, but there is a substantial risk that this will lead to a further spread in virus infections. Meanwhile, Cyclone Amphan, which hit West Bengal this week, has already had a significant human cost. But from an economic perspective, the damage should be limited. In terms of upcoming events, a hastily-arranged press conference will be held by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das later today (10am IST). We think that rates could be lowered further and other liquidity inducing measures could be announced.