No swan song for the dollar

We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other central banks proved to be a bit starker than discounted in the bond markets. But investors’ views of monetary policy in the US in 2018 have since moved even more closely into line with our own, without doing much for the greenback.