How far are US Treasury yields likely to rise?

After some brief respite, US Treasuries have come under fire again. Indeed, the 10-year yield has now rebounded to its highest level since last spring. We expect its rise to continue this year, as the Fed tightens policy by more than investors are discounting. However, we think that the yield will peak at a low level by the standards of the past and drop back in 2019, as the tightening cycle ends earlier than expected.