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Do rising term premia pose a threat to US Treasuries?

Some observers appear to be concerned that the onset of US monetary tightening will drive up long-term Treasury yields via a substantial increase in “term premia”. But a new set of unofficial data, published by staffers at the New York Federal Reserve, corroborate our view that this is unlikely. An increase in pure expectations for short-term interest rates will probably have a much bigger effect.

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