Recovery looking stronger

Global growth is likely to accelerate gradually next year as activity in the US gathers pace and the euro-zone's fragile recovery continues. Among the emerging economies, growth in China may slow further but activity should pick up steam in some other countries. The high level of spare capacity around the world means inflation is likely to remain very low and commodity prices should fall further. Against this backdrop, the Fed will probably scale back its policy stimulus only slowly during the coming year and all the major central banks in advanced economies should keep policy rates near zero for at least two more years.