Another year of solid growth

We expect 2018 to be another year of fairly strong economic growth, led by household consumption and business investment in advanced economies. Inflation will remain subdued, other than in the US where we think it will rise above the target by year-end. Against this backdrop, the Fed will probably raise policy rates four times this year but the ECB and Bank of Japan will withdraw policy stimulus only slowly. Prospects for emerging economies are mixed. China is already slowing and will lose more momentum this year, but growth in many other EMs will hold up well. Later this year and in 2019 we expect growth to slow, particularly in the US, where tighter monetary policy will begin to bite.