A curate’s egg

The global recovery has slowed this year but is likely to accelerate again during the coming quarters. We expect world GDP growth to be only 2½% for 2015, using our own estimates for China, but to pick up to over 3% in both 2016 and 2017. China itself already appears to be recovering as policy stimulus takes effect. Meanwhile, growth and inflation will remain low in the euro-zone and Japan, prompting central banks in both economies to step up the pace of their asset purchases. But the US economy is relatively strong and, as fears of a global downturn fade, the Fed is likely to raise policy rates more rapidly than expected.