Is euro-zone growth picking up or slowing?

The euro-zone’s two main activity surveys have given conflicting evidence about the state of the economy at the end of the third quarter, with the Composite PMI apparently pointing to slowing GDP growth but the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) signalling a pick-up.

There are some reasons to hope that the ESI’s more upbeat message may prove to be the more prescient. But even that is pointing to only a modest acceleration from fairly sluggish growth rates and the combination of rising inflation and political uncertainty could quickly dampen growth again.