French growth spurt unlikely to last

Data published this week suggest that France is bucking the gloomy trend; we think GDP expanded by around 0.4% q/q in Q2 whereas growth in the other three large economies slowed. But France’s growth spurt is unlikely to last much longer. Meanwhile, Greece’s new government is no panacea. The country’s fate remains firmly in the hands of the EU which looks determined to keep it on a tight leash. Next week is a quiet one for data; we think inflation in June will be revised up.