Export outlook brightens

The recent news from the euro-zone provides further signs that the economy emerged from recession in Q3. The data from the external sector have been especially encouraging. July’s sharp rise in exports meant that the trade surplus rose to a five-year high of €6.8bn, suggesting that the external sector might have boosted GDP for a second quarter running in Q3. What’s more, our growth forecasts for the euro-zone’s major export destinations point to a further improvement to come. But with domestic demand unlikely to pick up sharply, the recovery in the wider economy is likely to remain fairly sluggish.