Consumer recovery set to fade

February’s rise in euro-zone retail sales volumes caused the annual growth rate to pick back up to a healthy 2.4% and suggests that total consumer spending growth accelerated in the first quarter compared to Q4. But spending volumes have been boosted by sharp falls in oil prices, which cannot continue at the same pace. And the further fall in EC Survey consumer confidence in March supports our view that the spending revival which was the mainstay of last year’s economic recovery is set to slow in the months ahead.