ECB to stick to the script amid mixed opinions

The ECB has certainly given some mixed messages over recent weeks, with some Council members judging that the first rate hike should come during next summer while others assert that Q4 2019 is more likely. We doubt that it will change its forward guidance that interest rates will be on hold “through the summer” at its meeting next Thursday. But it will stress that the timing of the first hike will be data-dependent. Given our expectation that growth will be healthy and core inflation will edge up, we still see the first hike coming in September.