Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13?

The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be clear, our forecast of lower oil prices by end-2019 is based on analysis of the demand and supply fundamentals in the market and our view on investor risk appetite, not on events in 2012. But, we also looked at earlier price spikes and thought the parallels with 2012 were worth highlighting.