We continue to expect the price of Brent, currently around $33 per barrel, to recover to $60 in 2017 and $70 by 2020. Nonetheless, with OPEC in disarray and China uncertainty persisting, we are cutting our end-2016 forecast from $55 to $45. Oil prices were above $100pb for most of the first half of this decade, but they may now struggle to average much more than $50 in the second.
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