What our commodity forecasts mean for EMs

The major oil producers have seen the biggest gains in exports from the rally in commodity prices this year, although most of this windfall is likely to be saved which will limit the boost to economic recoveries. We expect that commodity prices will fall later this year and in 2022, turning tailwinds into headwinds, particularly for metals producers. That should also temper inflation pressures and reduce the likelihood of broad-based monetary tightening in the emerging world.